The domains under standing observation. Not positions — the map of our attention.
The base layer as a market. Fee dynamics, mempool pressure, blockspace demand, and the long transition from block subsidy to a fee-supported security budget.
The economics of unobservable value. Private settlement systems as they mature — Monero, Zcash, and Bitcoin-native privacy — and the premium the market places on transacting unseen. Coinjoins and Silent payments as on-chain techniques for obscuring the transaction graph; Cashu ecash as an application-layer blind signature system that issues bearer tokens redeemable over Lightning, leaving no on-chain trail at all.
Bearer assets, not balances. The tooling and practice of self-custody — multisig, hardware, key rotation — and the widening gap between holding an asset and holding a promise.
Where speed meets settlement. Lightning Network channel liquidity and routing markets; swap services and Boltz.exchange bridging on-chain and off-chain value; Liquid Network as a sidechain settlement layer; DEXs as non-custodial exchange infrastructure — and the point at which all of it must ultimately anchor to irreversible base-layer finality.
Non-human demand. Autonomous agents as economic actors, machine-to-machine payment rails, decentralised identity for machines, and the first signals of software bidding for blockspace.
The current beneath everything. Sovereign balance sheets, debasement policy and reserve behaviour — the macro tide that moves every credibly scarce asset.
We watch continuously and publish rarely — only when something here changes how we think.